China Faces an Uncertain Future (exerpts from Daily Signal Article)


​China recently launched missiles over Taiwan and into Japanese waters in a truculent response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Aug. 2 visit to the island nation.   That was just the latest sign Beijing is not deterred and might be closer to trying a military takeover of Taiwan than most believe. 

Last year, Navy Adm. Phil Davidson, the former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, cautioned Congress that China is preparing to move against Taiwan by 2027. That assessment is shared by the current Indo-Pacific commander, the current CIA director, and Mike Pompeo, a former secretary of state and ex-CIA director. 

Why 2027? Eyeing negative economic and demographic trends, and the regional military balance, Chinese leaders worry that the odds they’ll be able to achieve their long-held goal of conquering Taiwan will fade with each passing year after that.


So what can we say about the China of today?

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The current segment of the population of military age will decline by 36M in next few years to less than 400M

China has a sizable naval fleet capacity versus the US if forces are engaged in the Taiwan Strait

China will be making strategic decisions in next few years, with major potential consequences for Taiwan

For decades, China has reported annual growth rates in the 8-10% range.  GDP is in decline, expected to drop below four percent by 2027

​As more US resources become available, a certain balance of forces will be attained

The birth rate of China is below the levels needed for replacement, putting the population in long term decline, with estimates of up to 40% fewer people by mid-century